03/20/22 The Importance Of Realism (Take The Money And Run)

I watched the first episode of DMZ, decided that was enough for me and won't be finishing the show. I was curious how the reception to the show was, looked up some reviews (wasn't surprised by some of the harsh criticism) and looked up the current comic values and recent sales which prompted me to write this blog post.

At some point in time, I may end up doing a post or video on when I think is the best time to sell a comic but that would be way too long to also cover in this post. So instead I'll just be commenting on the people with current DMZ listings on Ebay and how unrealistic I think their listed prices are.

First off, did anyone think this show would be a hit? Wasn't the casting of Rosario Dawson as it's lead and Ava DuVernay as the director big red flags at the time? Rosario Dawson has 340 titles listed in her filmography on IMDB. Can you think of 3 things she was in that you considered good let alone great? I'm not saying Rosario Dawson is a bad actress or that Ava Duvernay is a bad director but if you read DMZ, what in Ava DuVernay's list of directing credits would make one think she's a good fit for it?

All that aside, we know that comics with upcoming screen adaptations are going to go up in value and can be good to spec on but the entire point of this post is to highlight how it's important to be realistic when it comes to spec'ing on comics like this. I'm all for buying a comic for $10, getting it graded and selling it for $100 so I'm not here to argue against the profitability of comics like this or how big or small a profit one should have when buying/selling them. If it's worth your time and effort and you're happy with your profit margin, then go for it. But looking at the current listings on Ebay for DMZ #1 9.8s, what exactly are these people thinking?

There are currently seven universal label CGC 9.8s listed on Ebay. They range in price from $400-$550. Two copies last sold earlier this month at an average price of $387.50 and the highest recorded sale ever was $440 back in March of 2021. This show does not appear to be very popular and there's no reason to think it will ever be any more popular than it is at this very moment so WTF are these people doing not unloading these comics as fast as they can? There's zero reason to think the value of this comic isn't going to plummet in the next few months.

I've included a graphic below showing three very successful and three very not so successful comic adaptations with their highest sales price, last sales price, the percentage difference between those numbers and then applied those percentages to the DMZ book. The image is fairly self-explanatory and basically shows where the value of DMZ #1 is likely to fall in the not so distant future.

In all likelihood DMZ #1 9.8s will probably drop to $200 or less in the very near future so if someone wanted to try to wiggle out $300-$350 for a copy, now is probably the last chance they'll have to do that.

Even if you look at pretty successful shows like The Boys, Sweet Tooth, Peacemaker, Umbrella Academy, etc., the big gains these books have (if you consider some of them even big) are really short-lived and for every successful Sweet Tooth out there, there seems to be a dozen or so DMZs. The Walking Dead is by far the anomaly of the bunch.

So if you have an indie spec book like this that you spent $10 on and it jumps up to $440, rather than look a gift horse in the mouth and hold out for Walking Dead type money or delude yourself into thinking it's going to skyrocket when a tralier comes out, it's probably best to just take the money and run.